Most people assume the Northern Virginia real estate market goes quiet in February. The numbers from this month proved otherwise.
Pending contracts surged across nearly every county. Buyers in Prince William and Fairfax came off the sidelines hard. And out in Fauquier — a market most people aren't watching closely — the median sold price jumped 19% year-over-year in a single month. That's not noise. That's a signal.
I'm Chris Colgan, and I've been covering this region's real estate market from the inside for over 18 years — more than $1 billion in closed transactions, a team based out of Marshall, Virginia, and roots in western Prince William County that go back to when Catharpin Road was the edge of everything. Every month I pull the Bright MLS numbers for the counties I work in every single day. Here's what February 2026 is actually telling us.
Why February 2026 Matters for Northern Virginia Real Estate
Spring markets don't wait for March. In Northern Virginia, February is when buyer demand re-ignites and the competitive season quietly begins. This year, the data across multiple counties shows a region that is simultaneously gaining inventory and absorbing it fast — a tension that defines what kind of market you're actually operating in.
The story isn't uniform. Each county tells a different chapter of the same regional narrative, and where you buy or sell matters enormously.
Fairfax County: High Demand, Tightening Fast
Fairfax County is the engine of Northern Virginia real estate, and February confirmed that the engine is running hot again.
834 new pending contracts were recorded in February — a 19% jump from January and 9% above February 2025. Buyers absorbed 691 closed sales, up 21.7% month-over-month and 6.3% above last year. The median sold price landed at $729,000, up 8% from January and sitting above the 5-year February average of $678,560.
What makes this significant is the sell-to-original-list-price ratio: 99.8%. Homes in Fairfax County are closing at virtually full asking price. Days on market averaged just 28 — the fastest velocity in the region. Active listings stand at 1,066, which sounds like supply until you realize pending contracts are running ahead of new listings by a wide margin.
This is what I call a structural inventory deficit playing out in real time. Demand is outpacing supply, and sellers who price correctly are not negotiating.
If you're looking for homes in Fairfax County, you need to be ready to move decisively. The February data doesn't suggest a slowdown — it suggests a market that rewards preparation.
Prince William County: The Value Leader With Serious Momentum
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Prince William County — my home county — continues to punch above its weight in terms of activity. February saw 412 new pendings, a 19.4% spike from January and 22.3% higher than February 2025. That's the strongest pending surge in the region by percentage and raw volume combined.
The median sold price reached $569,000, up 3.5% year-over-year. The YTD median of $564,336 compares favorably to the 5-year average of $526,798 — confirming a steady upward trajectory on values.
At 35 average days on market and a 99.0% sold-to-list ratio, Prince William is moving quickly. Active listings climbed to 511 — the highest in the county's recent history — but with pendings outpacing new listings by 27 units in February alone, that inventory isn't sitting still.
Haymarket, Gainesville, Bristow, and Woodbridge are seeing the heaviest action. If you're looking for value relative to Fairfax without sacrificing quality of life, Prince William County remains one of the best decisions a Northern Virginia buyer can make in 2026. Explore current listings at colganteam.com/haymarket-real-estate.
Loudoun County: Big Closings, Declining New Listings
Loudoun County's February report is one I read carefully, because the inventory story here is genuinely different from the rest of the region.
304 homes closed in February — a 46.9% surge from January and 6.7% above last year. That's a massive jump in transaction volume. The median sold price hit $760,000, up 8.6% from January and 1.3% above February 2025. Loudoun remains the region's highest-priced major market.
But here's the signal worth paying attention to: new listings dropped 22.5% year-over-year, falling to 341 from 440 in February 2025. YTD listings are down 12.9% compared to 2025. Buyers in Loudoun are competing for a shrinking pool of available homes.
Active listings stand at 435, down from the February 2025 reading of 469. Average days on market is just 27. The sold-to-list ratio of 99.4% reflects strong negotiating conditions for sellers.
Ashburn, Brambleton, and the Lansdowne corridor are the primary demand centers. If you're considering Ashburn real estate, the window of relative opportunity is narrower than it was a year ago.
Arlington County: Cooling Prices, Surging Buyer Activity
Arlington tells a nuanced story in February that separates it from the rest of Northern Virginia.
179 new pendings — up 33.6% from January and 13.3% above February 2025. 142 closed sales, up 46.4% month-over-month. But the median sold price came in at $692,500 — down 7.9% from February 2025's $751,500, and down slightly from January.
What does that mean? Arlington's price correction from its 2024-2025 peaks is creating a re-entry window. Buyers who were priced out of Arlington's condo and townhouse market 12 months ago are back at the table — and the 33.6% pending surge confirms that buyers recognize the opportunity.
Active listings at 306 are right at the 5-year February average. Days on market averaged 35, longer than in the peak years, but the 98.9% sold-to-list ratio confirms that well-priced properties still move cleanly.
For Arlington County real estate buyers, this is one of the more interesting setups in recent memory: a high-demand market with softened prices and strong transit access. If you're looking for the best realtor in Arlington to navigate this specific window, I'd welcome the conversation.
Alexandria City: Strong Demand, Constrained Supply
Alexandria continues to operate with one of the tightest supply pictures in the region. New listings dropped 19.7% year-over-year, and YTD listings are down 2.2% compared to 2025. Only 126 new listings came to market in February.
Despite constrained supply, 142 new pendings were recorded — up 4.4% from January. The median sold price reached $695,000, though the YTD figure of $629,000 reflects some month-to-month volatility. Alexandria's condo market and historic townhouse inventory create wider price swings than the detached home markets elsewhere in the region.
Average days on market of 30 — right at the 5-year average — suggest a balanced but supply-limited environment. With 260 active listings, buyers in Old Town, Del Ray, and the West End are navigating a lean market.
See the Newest Alexandria, VA Real Estate
Stafford County: The Inventory Surge Story
Stafford County's February data stands out for one reason: new listings surged 46.2% year-over-year, the largest inventory increase in the region. 174 new listings came to market, pushing active inventory to 306 — a 36% jump from February 2025's 225.
Yet buyer demand absorbed it. 131 closed sales — up 10.1% year-over-year. New pendings of 149 were 22.1% above February 2025. The median sold price came in at $510,000, which is slightly below last year's $525,000, reflecting the increased supply moderating prices.
Stafford sits at a genuine crossroads for 2026. More inventory than a year ago, prices stabilizing rather than surging, and days on market lengthening to 49. For buyers, this is more breathing room. For sellers, pricing discipline matters more here than in the tighter markets to the north.
For those tracking Fredericksburg real estate and the I-95 corridor, Stafford's data is an important regional context.
Fredericksburg City: A Market Finding Its Floor
Fredericksburg posted 153 closed sales in February — up 8.5% year-over-year — and a median sold price of $485,000, a modest 1.7% gain from February 2025. The YTD median of $485,000 is ahead of the 5-year average of $443,000, confirming sustained long-term appreciation.
The nuance here is in the property type breakdown. Detached homes at $515,000 median showed the strongest stability. Attached and townhouse product came in at $382,450 — notably, up 15.9% year-over-year for townhouses, which reflects the demand shift toward attached product from buyers seeking a foothold in the market.
Days on market hit 51 for all home types — the highest in the region — and significantly above the 5-year February average of 35. This is a market where sellers need to be strategic about pricing and presentation.
Fauquier County: The Luxury Outlier With Surging Demand
Fauquier County deserves special attention in February because its data reads differently than anywhere else in Northern Virginia.
The median sold price reached $690,000 in February — a 19% jump from February 2025 and 13.1% above January's $610,000. That's a sharp move for a county that averaged $562,700 over the prior 5 Februaries.
Even more telling: 77 new pendings — up 28.3% year-over-year. New listings of 77 were slightly below last year, meaning demand absorbed supply almost one-for-one. Active listings hit 151, right at the 5-year February average.
The 54-day average days on market and 97.1% sold-to-list ratio reflect Fauquier's character: a slower-moving, higher-value market where well-positioned properties command strong prices. I know this county well — our office is in Marshall, and I've watched Fauquier quietly appreciate while the Beltway suburbs grab all the headlines.
If you're considering Warrenton real estate or the broader Fauquier corridor, February's data suggests the market is tightening in ways that won't stay quiet for long.
The Regional View: What February 2026 Tells Us
Reading across all eight markets, three themes emerge from the February data.
Buyer demand is back. Pending contract activity surged across nearly every county — Prince William (+22.3% YoY), Stafford (+22.1% YoY), and Arlington (+13.3% YoY) led the way. The 2026 spring market is not waiting for warmer weather.
Inventory is improving but not solving the problem. Stafford and Fauquier saw inventory gains. Loudoun and Alexandria saw inventory decline. Fairfax County's active listings of 1,066 — while at the 5-year average — are being absorbed faster than they're accumulating. The structural inventory deficit that has defined Northern Virginia real estate for years is not resolved.
Prices are holding or rising in most markets. Fauquier (+19% YoY), Prince William (+3.5%), and Loudoun (+1.3%) posted gains. Arlington (-7.9% YoY) and Alexandria (-0.7%) are the corrections worth watching — and potentially worth acting on if you've been waiting for an entry point in those premium zip codes.
What This Means If You're Buying in Northern Virginia
The window to buy before the full spring surge is now. Pending activity is already accelerating. Fairfax County's 28-day average DOM means the clock starts the moment a good property hits the market. The buyers who succeed in 2026 are the ones who get pre-approved, know their target areas, and don't wait for perfect conditions that aren't coming.
Markets like Arlington and Alexandria are offering something rare: a short-term price reset in areas with long-term demand fundamentals that haven't changed at all. Amazon HQ2 construction continues in Pentagon City. The federal workforce anchoring these markets isn't going anywhere. The Silver Line is fully operational through Loudoun.
If you need a guide to the specific neighborhoods, schools, and price points across this region, start at ColganTeam.com or explore the individual county pages for Manassas and Fairfax.
What This Means If You're Selling in Northern Virginia
Sellers in Fairfax, Prince William, and Loudoun are holding the stronger hand right now. The data confirms it: sub-30-day DOM, 99%+ sold-to-list ratios, and pending activity outpacing supply.
The sellers who will leave money on the table in 2026 are the ones who overprice based on hope rather than comps, or who under-invest in presentation in markets like Fredericksburg and Stafford where buyers have more choices and days on market is lengthening.
If you're thinking about listing this spring, the best time to start the conversation is before your competition does. Reach out to the Chris Colgan Team at ChrisColgan@ColganTeam.com or 571-437-7475, or visit ColganTeam.com.
Final Thoughts
February 2026 confirms what I've seen building for months: Northern Virginia real estate is entering a competitive spring cycle with uneven conditions by county, but a clear directional bias toward seller advantage in the core markets.
If you're looking for the best realtor in Northern Virginia to help you interpret this data and apply it to your specific situation — whether you're buying in Haymarket, selling in Arlington, or relocating to the region for the first time — I'd love to connect.
Subscribe to my weekly market newsletter at realnovanetwork.com for ongoing updates, or follow along at YouTube.com/ChrisColgan and @ChrisColganTeam on Instagram where I break down these numbers in plain English every week.
"It depends on the county. Fairfax, Prince William, and Loudoun remain firmly seller-advantaged, with days on market under 35 and sold-to-list ratios near or above 99%. Arlington and Alexandria have softened slightly year-over-year, offering buyers a short-term window in those premium markets. Stafford and Fredericksburg are the most balanced, with rising inventory giving buyers more options than they've had in years." "Median prices vary significantly by market. Loudoun County leads at $760,000, followed by Fairfax County at $729,000, Alexandria City at $695,000, Arlington County at $692,500, Fauquier County at $690,000, Prince William County at $569,000, Stafford County at $510,000, and Fredericksburg City at $485,000. All figures are sourced from Bright MLS via MarketStats by ShowingTime, calculated as of March 5, 2026." "Fairfax County carries the most active inventory at 1,066 listings as of February 2026, followed by Prince William County at 511, Loudoun County at 435, Stafford County at 306, and Arlington County at 306. However, raw inventory numbers are most meaningful in context of pending activity — in Fairfax, pendings are running ahead of new listings, meaning that inventory is actively shrinking." "Average days on market in February 2026 ranged from 27 days in Loudoun County to 54 days in Fauquier County. Fairfax County averaged 28 days, Prince William County averaged 35 days, Arlington averaged 35 days, and Fredericksburg averaged 51 days. The faster the market moves in a given county, the more critical it is for buyers to be pre-approved and ready to write clean offers quickly." "For buyers who have been waiting on the sidelines, February's data suggests the time to act is now rather than deeper into spring when competition intensifies. The most favorable entry-point markets in the current data are Arlington and Alexandria, where year-over-year price softening is occurring despite strong long-term demand fundamentals. For buyers in Fairfax or Prince William, the best strategy is preparation — get pre-approved, establish your criteria, and be ready to move quickly on well-priced properties."Frequently Asked Questions
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About Chris Colgan
Chris Colgan is the founder of Real Nova Network and team leader of Chris Colgan – Real Broker – Powered by PLACE.
Through colganteam.com and realnovanetwork.com, Chris covers Northern Virginia real estate trends, major developments, and hyper-local market updates to help buyers and sellers make confident decisions.
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