A data-driven, unfiltered report by Chris Colgan
Northern Virginia is entering 2026 with one of the most unusual — and quietly powerful — real estate climates in decades. Prices keep climbing. Inventory is rising but not “loosening.” Buyers are active but more selective. And across the region, the numbers tell one story clearly:
Northern Virginia did not cool down. It recalibrated — and now it’s running on fundamentals, not hype.
Below is the most complete, county-by-county breakdown of what is actually happening across the region, using real Bright MLS data from October 2025.
Alexandria: High Prices, High Demand, Zero Signs of a Slowdown
Source: Alexandria Market Insight, Oct 2025
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Alexandria continues to behave like the urban core of a world-class metro: inventory rises slightly, demand absorbs it instantly, and prices keep marching upward.
Numbers That Matter
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New Listings: 352
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Closed Sales: 346 (up 10.2% YOY)
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Median Sold Price: $700,000
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Days on Market: 27
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Active Listings: 690
What It Means
Alexandria’s appreciation is not speculative — it’s structural. Proximity to D.C., Metro access, and a highly educated workforce keep this market insulated. Even with more homes available, buyers have not backed away. They’re sharpening their criteria, not leaving the market.
Fairfax County: The Region’s Economic Engine Stays on Course
Source: Fairfax Market Insight, Oct 2025
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Fairfax is still the gravitational center of Northern Virginia real estate — massive volume, stable pricing, and consistent consumer confidence.
Numbers That Matter
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New Listings: 939
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Closed Sales: 1,027
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Median Sold Price: $745,000
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Days on Market: 26
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Active Inventory: 1,625
What It Means
Fairfax is a textbook “balanced seller’s market”: enough inventory to give buyers choice, but not enough to put downward pressure on prices. Median prices continue a slow, steady rise — exactly what you expect from a mature, job-rich market.
Loudoun County: Wealth Buyers, New Construction, and Rising Expectations
Source: Loudoun Market Insight, Oct 2025
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Loudoun remains one of the most competitive suburban markets in the entire Mid-Atlantic, driven by affluence, amenities, and tech-centered job growth.
Numbers That Matter
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New Pendings: 458
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Closed Sales: 478
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Median Sold Price: $741,000
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Days on Market: 29
What It Means
This is where high-income buyers and new-construction seekers continue to write aggressive offers. Data-center expansion and strong school systems keep this region in permanent demand. Even small increases in inventory do not meaningfully slow competition.
Prince William County: Where Value Meets Velocity
Source: PWC Market Insight, Oct 2025
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Prince William is one of the strongest “value markets” in Northern Virginia — meaning buyers can still get space, location, and modern homes at prices below Fairfax and Loudoun.
Numbers That Matter
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New Listings: 462 (up 17.3% YOY)
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New Pendings: 479
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Closed Sales: 437
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Median Sold Price: $577,450
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Days on Market: 25
What It Means
This is where the action is. Buyers priced out of Fairfax are landing in Gainesville, Bristow, Manassas, and Woodbridge, and they are arriving ready to compete. More listings are hitting the market, but they are being absorbed just as fast.
Fauquier County: The Rural-Luxury Surge Continues
Source: Fauquier Market Insight, Oct 2025
LMI-County-FauquierCountyVA-202…
Fauquier is experiencing one of the strongest appreciation waves in Northern Virginia — driven by acreage buyers, estate-seekers, and remote workers.
Numbers That Matter
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New Pendings: 86
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Median Sold Price: $640,000 (up 9.4% YOY)
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Days on Market: 38
What It Means
This is the countryside market with real momentum. High-income Fairfax and Loudoun buyers are trading lot size for land. Equestrian properties, farms, and custom homes are commanding premiums. This county is quietly becoming a luxury alternative.
Stafford County: A Military and Commuter Stronghold with Rising Momentum
Source: Stafford Market Insight, Oct 2025
LMI-City-StaffordVA-202510
Stafford continues to punch above its weight as one of the fastest-moving and most affordable high-growth segments of NoVA.
Numbers That Matter
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New Listings: 100 (up 25% YOY)
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New Pendings: 97 (up 21.3% YOY)
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Median Sold Price: $535,000
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Days on Market: 34
What It Means
This is not a soft market. It’s an accelerating one. Stafford provides more house for the money while serving Quantico, cyber/defense workers, and Fredericksburg commuters. It remains a first-choice market for families looking for space and predictability.
The Real Northern Virginia Story Heading Into 2026
After analyzing every jurisdiction, three truths emerge:
1. There is no crash. No correction. No collapse.
Every county posted year-over-year price gains.
2. Rising inventory did not weaken the market — it stabilized it.
Buyers now have breathing room, but they still write strong offers on well-priced homes.
3. Northern Virginia’s economy is overpowering national trends.
This region’s job base, federal stability, tech growth, and infrastructure investments fuel a level of demand most markets simply do not have.
2026 is shaping up to be a strategic market — not an easy one.
Sellers will need the right pricing and presentation.
Buyers will need preparation, speed, and clarity.
But both sides will find opportunity.
Thinking About Moving to Northern Virginia?
Get my free Northern Virginia Relocation Guide — packed with neighborhood breakdowns, schools, commute tips, and true insider insight.
Download it here: www.northernvirginiarelocation.com
Considering Buying or Selling?
Contact the Chris Colgan Team for any real estate needs.
If you want to understand where you fit into this market — whether buying, selling, upsizing, downsizing, or investing — my team and I will break it down for you clearly and strategically.
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