Northern Virginia Housing Market and Community Update – May 2025

Welcome to the May 2025 Northern Virginia housing market and community update. The spring market is in full swing, and we’re seeing notable shifts: more homes are coming on the market, prices are steady to rising in most areas, and buyers face the headwind of higher interest rates. Meanwhile, local developments – from tax changes to road projects and community events – are making headlines. Read on for a county-by-county market snapshot, economic news, and community updates across Northern Virginia.

Housing Market Trends by County

Despite 30-year mortgage rates hovering around 7%, buyer demand in Northern Virginia remains robust this spring. Many sellers have decided it’s time to list, leading to a surge in inventory compared to last year. Buyers now have more choices, but well-priced homes are still selling quickly – often at or above asking price – a sign of strong competition in the market. On average, homes are selling in just 2–3 weeks across the region. Below is a snapshot of median prices and key metrics for several Northern Virginia counties and cities:

• Fairfax County: Median price $755,000 (up 2% year-over-year). Listings are up 55% from last spring, giving buyers more options. Homes average 17 days on market and are selling at 101% of asking price, on average (just above list price).
• Loudoun County: Median price $810,000 (up 8% YoY). Listings are up 40%. Homes average 18 days on market, at 101% of asking price – often going for full price or slightly more.
• Prince William County: Median price $550,000 (down 5% YoY, a slight dip). Listings have jumped 68% vs. last year, the biggest inventory increase in the region. Average days on market 19, with sale prices about 100.5% of asking (just over asking).
• Arlington County: Median price $760,000 (up 5.8% YoY). Listings are up 70%. Homes take around 24 days on market on average – a bit longer than outer suburbs – and sell at 99.6% of asking price (just under list).
• Alexandria: Median price $755,000 (up 7.5% YoY). Listings are up 50%. Homes move very fast – only 16 days on market on average – and sell at 99.9% of asking (essentially full price).
• Fauquier County: Median price $712,000 (a big 28% jump YoY). Listing counts are roughly stable (no major change in inventory). However, properties here take longer to sell – 46 days on market on average – and typically sell at about 98% of asking price, reflecting a more rural, higher-end market.

A typical Northern Virginia home. Across the region, median prices are up in most counties compared to a year ago, and buyer demand remains strong despite more inventory.

Overall, Northern Virginia’s housing market in May 2025 can be described as moderately competitive. Buyers have more homes to choose from than last year, which has slightly reduced the frenzy, but desirable homes still sell quickly. The fact that sale prices are at or above 100% of list in almost all local jurisdictions shows that bidding wars and multiple offers are still common. Sellers, however, need to price carefully – in areas like Prince William County where prices dipped year-over-year, buyers are a bit more price-sensitive. The higher interest rates (around 7% for a 30-year mortgage) are also affecting affordability, so properly priced homes are key to attracting offers.

Economic and Local News Updates

Beyond the housing stats, there are several economic and policy developments in Northern Virginia that homeowners and residents are watching:

• Interest Rates Back Up: After some relief over the winter, mortgage interest rates have climbed above 7% again recently. This is the highest level in several months and about a point higher than the national average a year ago. Higher rates mean higher monthly payments, which can reduce some buyers’ purchasing power. So far, Northern Virginia housing demand has held steady, but if rates stay over 7% for long, we may see some cooling in price growth as the year progresses.

• Local Taxes: In local government news, Fairfax County officials are considering a 12% meals tax increase. This proposal – which would raise the tax on restaurant meals – is still under debate, but if enacted it could impact dining out costs in the county. On a brighter note for property owners, Arlington County and Loudoun County have reduced their real estate tax rates this year. In Loudoun, the Board of Supervisors approved a cut in the property tax from $0.865 to $0.805 per $100 of assessed value providing slight relief on tax bills even as home assessments have risen. Arlington County also opted to not increase its property tax rate (holding it flat or with a minor decrease) to mitigate the impact of higher assessments. These moves should modestly ease homeowners’ annual tax burdens.

• Job Market and Economy: The job market in Virginia remains very strong. Unemployment in Virginia is around 3.0%, which is about a full percentage point lower than the national average. In Northern Virginia, the economy continues to add jobs – especially in sectors like tech and government contracting. The region is also a hub for cybersecurity and IT. In fact, Northern Virginia has one of the nation’s largest cybersecurity workforces, and demand for tech talent is high (Virginia employers posted over 50,000 cybersecurity job openings in the past year). This growth in high-paying tech jobs helps fuel the local housing market and keeps unemployment low.

• Job Market and Economy: The job market in Virginia remains very strong. Unemployment in Virginia is around 3.0%, which is about a full percentage point lower than the national average. In Northern Virginia, the economy continues to add jobs – especially in sectors like tech and government contracting. The region is also a hub for cybersecurity and IT. In fact, Northern Virginia has one of the nation’s largest cybersecurity workforces, and demand for tech talent is high (Virginia employers posted over 50,000 cybersecurity job openings in the past year). This growth in high-paying tech jobs helps fuel the local housing market and keeps unemployment low.

• Amazon HQ2 Update: It’s been five years since Amazon announced its HQ2 project in Arlington, and the build-out is ongoing. However, Amazon’s hiring has fallen short of early targets. As of early 2025, Amazon had about 7,200 employees hired for HQ2 since 2018 – short of the 10,000 jobs it originally projected by this point. The company has even reduced its confidence in reaching the full 25,000 jobs by 2030, now suggesting it might take until 2038 to hit that goal. Amazon cited the pandemic shift to remote work and some federal government downsizing in the D.C. area as factors slowing their plans. The good news is Amazon still reaffirms its commitment to HQ2 for the long term, and the first phase of HQ2 (the Met Park campus in Pentagon City) is open. The slower ramp-up has given the region more time to absorb the growth, and so far the local housing market has handled the influx of Amazon hires without the extreme price spikes some had feared back in 2018.

• Tech and Data Centers: Northern Virginia’s title as “Data Center Alley” continues to shape local policy. Loudoun County – home to the largest concentration of data centers in the world – has started to place new restrictions on data center development. In March, the Loudoun Board of Supervisors voted 7-2 to remove “by-right” approval for data centers. Now, any new data center proposal must get special approval from the Board (a more stringent review), rather than being automatically allowed under zoning. This change came after residents raised concerns about the noise, power usage, and land use of massive server farms. Existing data center projects already in the pipeline (about 22 applications) are grandfathered under the old rules, but going forward Loudoun will be more selective about where new facilities can go.

• Energy Demand from AI: One reason data centers are in the spotlight is the surge in energy demand they are creating. Dominion Energy, Virginia’s electric utility, reports that power usage from data centers is accelerating rapidly, especially with the rise of artificial intelligence workloads. The utility expects U.S. power demand to hit record highs in 2025–2026 due in large part to data centers for AI and crypto. Dominion is investing heavily in the electric grid to serve Northern Virginia’s tech sector. Last year alone, Dominion connected 15 new data centers (adding nearly 1,000 megawatts of capacity), and it anticipates connecting 15 more this year. All this investment is a double-edged sword for residents: it’s driving huge tax revenues (Loudoun’s data center taxes have enabled the county to cut property tax rates while still funding schools and services), but it also raises questions about environmental impact and grid reliability. Dominion’s CEO noted that data center growth in Virginia “is not slowing down – in fact, it’s accelerating,” and the company is taking steps to meet the opportunity.

Community Infrastructure Projects: Transportation projects are always of interest in our growing region. In Prince William County, a major road plan – the proposed Route 28 Bypass in Manassas – was officially canceled earlier this year. After spending years and millions on studying a new highway to relieve Route 28 traffic, the Board of Supervisors voted in February to terminate the project amid rising cost concerns and opposition. Instead, officials may pivot to widening the existing Route 28 corridor. Residents frustrated with Rt. 28 congestion have mixed feelings; some welcomed the cancellation due to environmental and neighborhood impacts, while others worry that without the bypass, relief is nowhere in sight. Meanwhile, in Fairfax County, the long-running Fairfax County Parkway widening project continues. Construction crews are working to widen segments of the Parkway (Route 286) to reduce bottlenecks. Drivers on the Parkway can expect ongoing lane closures and construction zones, but the end result in a couple of years will be improved traffic flow on one of Fairfax’s busiest arteries.

Road construction and infrastructure upgrades are a constant in Northern Virginia. Projects like the Fairfax County Parkway widening are moving forward, while another plan – the Route 28 Bypass in Prince William – was canceled after community pushback.

• Washington Commanders Stadium: Regional sports fans received big news: the Washington Commanders (our NFL team) are making plans to build a new stadium in D.C. In late April, D.C. officials and the Commanders’ new ownership announced a deal to develop the old RFK Stadium site into a 65,000-seat state-of-the-art stadium and mixed-use entertainment district. The project carries an eye-popping price tag of $3.7 billion, with the Commanders ownership group contributing about $2.7 billion of that as a private investment – the largest private investment in DC’s history. The proposal includes not just a stadium but also housing, retail, parks, and possibly a venue for large events like the NCAA Final Four or concerts. It’s not a done deal yet; the DC Council still needs to approve aspects of the plan, and there’s competition from Maryland and Virginia (who had also hoped to land the new stadium). But as of now, momentum is behind bringing the team back to D.C. within the next decade. While this is a D.C. project, Northern Virginia residents take interest since it’s our region’s NFL team – and a new stadium could mean easier access to games and events right across the river.

• Other Business News: In the retail sector, Wawa’s expansion in Northern Virginia continues. The popular convenience store chain (known for its coffee and hoagies) has announced plans to open up to 20 new Wawa stores across NoVA in the coming years. They have hired a commercial real estate firm to scout locations in Arlington, Fairfax, and Loudoun counties, as well as sites in the cities of Alexandria and Fairfax. Currently, Wawa’s footprint in Northern Virginia is limited (a handful of stores in Prince William County, plus one in Fairfax City and two in Loudoun), so this expansion would significantly increase their presence. Local fans of Wawa are excited to have more locations nearby. The chain’s growth also reflects confidence in the region’s consumer base. Over the next decade, Wawa aims to have 60 stores in Virginia statewide, investing roughly $7.5 million per store, so Northern Virginia will see a good share of those. Keep an eye out for new Wawa construction – your neighborhood might be getting one!

Community Events and Highlights

• Spring Bloom Festivals: This spring saw the return of the Burnside Farms “Festival of Spring” Tulip Festival in Nokesville. Burnside Farms planted over 200,000 tulips (and daffodils) and welcomed visitors throughout April to pick flowers and take photos among the colorful fields. The 2025 Tulip Festival ran from April 4 to April 21, coinciding perfectly with the blooms. Despite some rainy days early in the season, the festival was a big hit – families, photographers, and influencers flocked to the fields of tulips (and yes, those bright red and yellow tulip photos took over many Instagram feeds in our area!). If you missed the tulip fest, don’t worry – Burnside Farms will be back in summer with their Sunflower Festival, and next spring with more tulips. It’s become an annual rite of spring in Prince William County.

• County Fairs: Looking ahead to summer, our local county fairs are on the horizon. Mark your calendars for the Fairfax County 4-H Fair & Carnival, scheduled for July 31–August 3, 2025 at Frying Pan Farm Park in Herndon. This old-fashioned county fair features 4-H competitions, farm animals, carnival rides and games, live entertainment, and plenty of food – fun for all ages. Over in Prince William County, the Prince William County Fair – Virginia’s largest county fair – will return in mid-August in Manassas. The PWC Fair typically runs for 10 days with big carnival midways, a rodeo, demolition derby, concerts, livestock shows, and more. These fairs are fantastic opportunities to enjoy summer nights with family and friends. And don’t forget, the Arlington County Fair (one of the area’s longest-running free events) will also take place in August, bringing amusement rides and exhibits to the Thomas Jefferson Community Center grounds. Community fairs like these celebrate Northern Virginia’s agricultural heritage and provide summer fun close to home.

• Local Attractions & Openings: In other community news, we’re seeing growth in local amenities. Wawa, as mentioned, is expanding – so you might have a new favorite coffee stop or sandwich shop opening nearby soon. Additionally, other businesses are opening or expanding: for example, several new restaurants and breweries have opened their doors across Fairfax and Loudoun counties in recent months, adding to our region’s vibrant food scene. Summer concert series and outdoor movies will be kicking off soon in many town centers. And for anyone looking for family fun, the newly renovated W&OD Trail segments and park improvements across Northern Virginia offer great ways to get outside – biking, jogging, and summer evening strolls are all part of the Northern Virginia lifestyle when the weather is nice.

Finally, with all the changes in our local market and community, you might be wondering about your own real estate plans. Home prices are holding strong, and with more inventory available, it could be an opportune time if you’ve been on the fence about buying or selling.

Thinking of Buying or Selling? Let’s Connect

If you’re considering buying or selling a home in Northern Virginia, or just curious about how these market trends might affect you, I’m here to help. As a local real estate expert, I can provide a free home valuation, personalized buying strategies, or just answer any questions you have about the market. Email me at info@colganteam.com and let’s start a conversation about how to achieve your real estate goals

Thank you for reading this month’s update! Enjoy the start of summer in NoVA, and I look forward to assisting you with any of your real estate needs.

Chris Colgan | The Colgan Team at eXp Realty
✅ Over 1,000 Homes Sold in Northern Virginia
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