Northern Virginia Real Estate Trends: Insights for Home Buyers in 2025

Should You Buy a House in Northern Virginia Right Now? A Mid-2025 Reality Check

As a real estate expert who has lived and worked in Northern Virginia for over 18 years, the number one question I get is, "Is this a good time to buy, or should I wait?"

Here’s my direct answer: It is a challenging time to buy, but a fantastic time to own.

The mid-2025 Northern Virginia real estate market is defined by a simple, powerful formula: a world-class job market plus chronically low inventory equals rising prices and intense competition. Waiting for a market crash is not a winning strategy here. The economic fundamentals are just too strong.

So, how do you navigate this? You get smart, you get strategic, and you understand the key trends that are actually shaping the market right now. This isn't a generic report filled with numbers. This is what my team and I are seeing on the ground every single day—and what you need to know to make your move with confidence.

Trend 1: Inventory Is Up (But Don't Be Fooled)

The big headline from the Northern Virginia Association of Realtors (NVAR) is that active listings have surged—up nearly 70% from this time last year. On the surface, this sounds like fantastic news for buyers.

But here’s the reality: we are still deep in a seller's market.

We’ve moved from having a half-month of supply to about a 1.8-month supply. While that’s a significant improvement, a balanced, healthy market has 5 to 6 months of supply. The intense scarcity has eased slightly, but the fundamental imbalance remains.

What this means for you:

• You might see a few more homes on the market, but the best properties are still attracting multiple offers.
• The days of waiving all contingencies might be fading, but you still need to present a strong, clean offer to compete.
• For sellers, this is the sweet spot. You still hold the advantage, but with slightly more inventory, professional staging and smart pricing are more critical than ever.

Trend 2: Prices Are Still Climbing, But at a Healthier Pace

Let's get right to it. The median sold price in Northern Virginia has pushed past $779,000, according to the latest data. For a detached single-family home in sought-after areas, that number is often closer to $900,000.

However, the frantic, double-digit price hikes are behind us. We are now seeing more moderate and sustainable price growth in the low-to-mid single digits.

Chris's Expert Take: “Stop trying to time the absolute bottom of the market on prices or interest rates. It’s a fool's errand. Every month you wait, you’re losing out on building your own equity and are likely facing a slightly higher price. The smart move is to focus on the long-term value. Marry the house, date the rate—you can always refinance when rates eventually shift, but you can’t go back in time to buy at today’s prices.”

Trend 3: The "Flight to Quality" Is Driving Competition

With slightly more choice, buyers are not just jumping on any property. They are competing fiercely for updated, move-in-ready homes in prime locations.

What this means for you:

• Homes that are priced right and show well are gone in a weekend. If you see a property that checks all your boxes, you cannot afford to wait.
• "Ugly" houses present an opportunity. Homes that need cosmetic work are sitting on the market longer. For buyers willing to take on a project, there are deals to be had.
• Location is everything. The competition is hottest in top-tier school districts and areas with easy commutes. Townhouses and condos in walkable communities like Alexandria and Arlington remain incredibly popular as a more accessible entry point to the market.

Trend 4: Mortgage Rates Remain the Wild Card

While inventory and demand are local, mortgage rates are national. Rates have hovered in the high 6% range, which has impacted affordability and sidelined some buyers. However, it has not stopped the market. Serious, well-qualified buyers have adjusted to this new normal.

What this means for you:

• Your first step is getting pre-approved. Before you even look at a single house, you need to know exactly what your monthly payment will be and what you can afford. This gives you the power to act decisively when you find the right home.
• Don't let the rate paralyze you. A 1% change in mortgage rates is significant, but over a 30-year loan, the cost of waiting and paying more for the home itself can often be far greater.

The Bottom Line: How to Win in Today's NoVA Market

Success in this market isn’t about luck; it’s about preparation and strategy.

1. For Sellers: You are in a fantastic position. Professional marketing and strategic pricing will ensure you attract the most qualified buyers and maximize your final sales price.
2. For Buyers: You need an edge. This means having an agent who uncovers off-market opportunities and knows how to craft an offer that stands out in a competitive field.

My team and I have helped hundreds of clients navigate this complex market. We know the neighborhoods, we know the agents, and we know how to win.

If you're ready to make a move, let's create your strategy.

• Schedule a Free, No-Obligation Buyer Consultation
• Get a Professional Equity Assessment of Your Current Home

Chris Colgan Top Northern Virginia Realtor | eXp Realty
info@colganteam.com | ColganTeam.com | Follow my Instagram for daily insights