If you're following the Northern Virginia housing market, you've probably felt the shift. Gone are the days of 20 offers in 24 hours. With the government shutdown causing uncertainty and a general slowdown, many are asking the big question: is the market about to crash?
The short answer? No. It's normalizing.
While things are definitely slower, there's some fantastic news for buyers: interest rates are dropping. We're seeing clients lock in rates as low as 5.9% and 5.99%, a welcome relief from the 7%+ rates we saw earlier.
But the real story is in the county-level data. Here’s what I'm seeing on the ground.
The NoVA Market: A County-by-County Look
We're seeing a consistent theme across the region: active listings are at a five-year high, and homes are sitting on the market longer (around 25-39 days). However, "longer" is relative. Pre-COVID, a 3-4 month market time was normal. So, while sellers are having to negotiate, it's far from a dead market.
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Frederick County: Prices are still hot, up 9% year-over-year. This is driven by buyers priced out of other NoVA counties.
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Stafford County: New listings are up 10%, but new pending sales are down 20%. This shows a clear slowdown in buyer activity.
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Fauquier County: This is one of the few areas seeing a price drop, with the medium sold price down almost 5% as active listings hit a 5-year high.
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Prince William County: This market is still strong, with the medium sold price hitting $602,000 for the first time ever. Big news is also driving interest, with NVIDIA announcing its first-ever AI research facility in Manassas.
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Fairfax County: The market here is flat. The medium sold price is down slightly (0.7%), but it's holding steady.
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Loudoun County: Still a powerhouse, Loudoun's medium sold price is up 6% to $752,000.
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Alexandria: Surprisingly strong, prices are up 8.8% year-over-year.
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Arlington: This was the biggest shocker. The medium sold price has dropped 10%. This is likely being driven by a slowdown in the condo market.
What This Means for You
For Sellers: The key takeaway is "be realistic." The days of trumped-up COVID pricing are over. You need to price your home correctly from day one and be prepared to negotiate. We're seeing sellers pay closing costs and offer concessions again, which has become standard.
For Buyers: This is your moment. For the first time in years, sellers are accepting offers with first-time home buyer programs like VHDA (no money down) and other closing cost assistance. These programs were impossible to use when the market was frantic, but they are getting accepted all day long now.
The Bottom Line
No, the Northern Virginia market is not crashing. It's returning to a healthy, balanced state. We're also seeing exciting economic news that will continue to fuel our area, from the NVIDIA center in Manassas and a new Netflix office in D.C. to the Dulles Expo Center officially closing to make way for an IKEA.
We are in a shifting market, but it's one with more opportunities for buyers and a more predictable playing field for sellers.
This market update is provided by Chris Colgan with EXP Realty - Powered by Place. For more breaking news and local insights, visit ColganTeam.com.
What are you seeing in your neighborhood? Let me know in the comments below.
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