If you've been sitting on the sidelines waiting for the market to shift in your favor, I've got news for you.
The latest survey from Bright MLS reveals something we haven't seen in years: buyers are actually getting their offers accepted on the first try. They're taking their time to shop. They're negotiating again. And sellers? They're making concessions that would've been unthinkable in 2021.
But here's what nobody's talking about: this shift isn't creating a flood of new buyers. In fact, many potential buyers are more hesitant now than they were a year ago.
So what's really happening in Northern Virginia? Let me break down the numbers and show you what they mean for anyone thinking about buying or selling right now.
First Offers Are Actually Getting Accepted Again
Here's a stat that tells you everything about how much this market has changed.
During Q3 2025, nearly 45% of buyers only had to make one offer before successfully closing on a home. One offer. One shot. And they got it.
Compare that to last year, when almost 60% of buyers had to submit multiple offers before landing a deal. That's a massive shift.
I'm seeing this play out across Northern Virginia. Buyers in Arlington and Alexandria are actually having time to think about their decisions. They're not writing offers in the parking lot anymore. They're going home, sleeping on it, and coming back with reasonable terms—and sellers are accepting them.
The timeline has compressed too. More than a third of buyers found their home in less than a month. Two-thirds found one within two months. That's significantly faster than last year, which tells me there's more inventory to choose from and less competition fighting over every listing.
But Here's the Problem: Fewer People Are Looking
This is where it gets interesting.
Yes, the buyers who are active right now have more leverage. But there are fewer of them in the market—and the ones sitting out have serious concerns.
According to the Bright MLS survey, discretionary buying has dropped off a cliff. Last year, 33% of buyers were purchasing because they were "tired of renting" or simply wanted to own a home. This year? That number fell to just 27%.
Move-up buyers are pulling back too. Only about 12% of purchases in Q3 were people looking for bigger homes, down from over 15% the year before.
What's driving people into the market now are life changes they can't avoid—marriage, divorce, new babies, job relocations. These are necessity moves, not choice moves.
Here's what I'm seeing on the ground in Northern Virginia: the people who want to move but don't have to move are staying put. They're locked into low mortgage rates from 2020 and 2021, and even though today's rates are better than they were six months ago, they're still not low enough to make moving feel worth it.
Financial Anxiety Is the Real Story
Nearly 70% of agents reported working with at least one buyer who stopped or paused their home search during Q3.
Let that sink in for a second. Seven out of ten agents had a serious buyer walk away.
Why? High prices topped the list—no surprise there. But here's what caught my attention: financial concerns beyond just pricing are growing fast.
About 17% of agents said their clients backed out due to job loss, income changes, or general financial uncertainty. That's up from just 11% a year ago. People are nervous about the economy. They're worried about their jobs. And they're not willing to stretch themselves thin to buy a home right now.
I'm also seeing something I haven't seen in years: buyers walking away after the inspection. Almost half of the buyers who made offers but didn't close backed out because of issues found during inspection. They're not willing to take on homes that need work or surprised them with expensive problems.
That's smart. But it also shows that today's buyers are more risk-averse than ever.
Agents Are Bracing for a Slow Q4
Here's the most telling finding from the survey: real estate agents across the Mid-Atlantic are pessimistic about the rest of the year.
Only 12.5% of agents expect buyer activity to be "high to very high" during Q4. That's the lowest reading since Bright MLS started tracking this metric back in 2023. Last October, nearly twice as many agents were optimistic about the fall market.
Almost a quarter of agents are predicting Q4 buyer activity will be "low to very low."
Now, agents have been wrong before. We predicted slow activity in late 2023, and buyers showed up anyway. But the fundamentals are different now. Affordability is tighter. Economic uncertainty is higher. And the typical holiday slowdown might hit harder this year.
What This Means for Buyers in Northern Virginia
If you're a serious buyer ready to make a move, this is actually your moment—but you need to be strategic.
You have negotiating power now. More than half of homes sold in September went for below asking price. That's up from 45% a year ago. Sellers are also offering repair credits and closing cost assistance at rates we haven't seen since before the pandemic.
Take your time and be thorough. Don't skip the inspection. Don't waive contingencies just to make your offer look stronger. In today's market, sellers need you as much as you need them. Use that leverage wisely.
Price matters more than ever. With so many buyers pausing their searches due to affordability concerns, you need to make sure you're buying within your comfort zone. Get pre-approved. Understand your monthly payment. Factor in maintenance, taxes, and insurance. Don't stretch yourself thin.
Work with someone who knows the micro-markets. Northern Virginia isn't one market—it's dozens. What's happening in Gainesville is different from what's happening in Fairfax City. What works in Loudoun County might not work in Prince William County. You need an agent who understands the nuances of where you're looking.
What This Means for Sellers
If you're planning to list, don't let these headlines scare you. Good homes are still selling. But you need to come to market with the right strategy.
Pricing is everything. In this environment, overpricing is the kiss of death. Work with an agent who has real data on recent comps, not just wishful thinking. The Bright MLS survey shows that listing agents who understand local trends are critical for setting prices that attract today's cautious buyers.
Be ready to negotiate. Nearly a quarter of sellers offered repair credits in Q3. Another 16.5% helped with closing costs. If you want to sell, you need to be flexible. Buyers have options now, and they're not afraid to walk away if the deal doesn't feel right.
Presentation matters more than ever. Buyers are doing thorough inspections and they're backing out if they find problems. Make sure your home is in showing condition. Address obvious issues before listing. Small investments in staging and repairs can make the difference between selling and sitting.
Don't wait for perfect conditions. Yes, Q4 tends to be slower. But the right buyer isn't waiting for January. They're looking now. If your home is priced right and shows well, you can absolutely get it sold before the holidays.
Chris's Take: This Is the Most Misunderstood Market in Years
Here's what nobody's talking about: this isn't a buyer's market in the traditional sense.
Yes, buyers have more leverage than they did in 2021 or 2022. Yes, there's more inventory and less competition. But this is a market where everyone is cautious. Buyers are nervous about the economy. Sellers are nervous about pricing too low. And everyone's waiting to see what happens next.
What I'm seeing in Northern Virginia is a market that's found a new equilibrium—one that's a lot more balanced than what we've had in years. In Ashburn, Gainesville, and parts of Alexandria, I'm watching deals happen when both sides are realistic. Buyers who understand they won't find perfection and sellers who price based on reality—those are the people closing deals right now.
The biggest mistake I see buyers making? Overthinking it. Waiting for rates to drop another half point. Waiting for prices to fall. Waiting for the "perfect" time. Meanwhile, life is happening. Kids are outgrowing bedrooms. Commutes are getting longer. Rent keeps increasing.
The biggest mistake sellers make? Believing their home is worth 2021 prices. It's not. The market has changed. But that doesn't mean you can't get a great price—you just need to be realistic about what great looks like today.
If you've been waiting for clarity, here it is: the market is open for business, but only for people who are ready to act with eyes wide open.
Ready to Make a Move?
Whether you're buying, selling, or just trying to figure out what your next move should be, this is the time to get informed. Head over to RealNovaNetwork.com for the latest updates on Northern Virginia real estate, market trends, and local insights you won't find anywhere else.
And if you're ready to have a real conversation about your specific situation—no pressure, just straight talk about what makes sense for you—let's connect. The Colgan Team has helped hundreds of families navigate markets just like this one. We know how to position buyers to win without overpaying, and we know how to get sellers top dollar without sitting on the market for months.
This market rewards the informed and the strategic. Let's make sure you're both.